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January 4, 2026 8:30 PM UTC

The Bitcoin Bleed Is Almost Over, But Will Price Reach $40,000 Before Bouncing?

Crypto analyst Sykodelic has declared that the Bitcoin bleed is almost over and suggested that BTC is unlikely to drop to $40,000 as some experts predict. He alluded to the 2022 bottom to explain why the leading crypto is likely to find a bottom soon and begin a new bull cycle. Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Will Soon Find A Bottom In an X post, Sykodelic said the Bitcoin bleed is almost over and that people expecting a drop to the $40,000 range will be sidelined. He further remarked that this is how people who were waiting for a drop to $12,000 were sidelined during the 2022 bottom. Commenting on the current BTC price action, the analyst noted that the leading crypto is trading in the largest pocket of supply it has seen in over five years, just below the higher-time-frame (HTF) bullish structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $59,000 Is The Line In The Sand, Here’s What You Should Know He stated that back in 2022, the Bitcoin price action was totally different. Back then, BTC had lost its HTF structure, and there was zero demand below. Instead, what was below was “clear air” with Bitcoin dropping below. However, the analyst said such price action is unlikely to occur this time around. Sykodelic said that the most he sees happening this time around is a deviation from the range low at around $60,000, then a reclaim, followed by a push back above $74,400, which would confirm an expanded flat. The analyst added that if a deviation move below $60,000 occurs, it is very likely due to the U.S.-Iran war, and that it could happen in the next two weeks. Lastly, he mentioned that there have been signs of large accumulation across the board, with much greater strength. As such, the analyst is confident that this downtrend will be over much faster than most people expect. Why BTC Could Drop To As Low As $46,000 In an X post, popular crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that old-school on-chain models suggest that Bitcoin will form a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000. He further remarked that the Orange line on the accompanying chart corresponds to the capital stored in BTC, and it has been leaving since November. The analyst also pointed out that the CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time and is currently at $45,500. Related Reading: The Last Time Bitcoin Sentiment Was This Bad Was 2022, But There Was A Silver Lining However, Willy Woo cautioned that these models rely on past behavior and that there have been only four prior bear markets, all within a secular bull market in risk equities. As such, he noted that if the foundation collapses, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will enter uncharted territory, which could lead to a deeper bear market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com