Bitcoin World
January 6, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

PlanB Warns of Over 50% Probability Bitcoin Will Drop Below $61,000

BitcoinWorld PlanB Warns of Over 50% Probability Bitcoin Will Drop Below $61,000 Bitcoin market analyst PlanB has issued a cautious forecast, stating there is a greater than 50% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall below $61,000. In a post on X, the analyst known for his stock-to-flow model highlighted a divided market, with some believing the $60,000 level reached in February marked the cycle bottom, while others anticipate a continued bear market. Market Sentiment Remains Split PlanB noted that the current data does not yet show definitive signs of a bottom forming. He emphasized that while some traders are optimistic about the $60,000 support, his analysis suggests the risk of a deeper correction remains significant. He specifically pointed to a more than 50% chance of BTC dropping below either $61,000 or $53,000, indicating a wide range of potential downside targets. Implications for Bitcoin Traders This forecast arrives during a period of heightened uncertainty in the crypto market, with macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions and regulatory developments weighing on investor sentiment. A break below $61,000 would represent a key psychological level, potentially triggering further selling pressure. For traders, the lack of a clear bottom signal suggests caution is warranted, with stop-losses and risk management becoming critical. What This Means for Long-Term Holders For long-term Bitcoin holders, PlanB’s analysis does not necessarily signal a permanent downturn. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced sharp corrections within broader bull cycles. However, the analyst’s probabilistic approach underscores that short-term volatility remains high. Investors should consider dollar-cost averaging strategies and avoid leveraged positions until clearer market direction emerges. Conclusion PlanB’s forecast adds a note of caution to the current Bitcoin narrative. While the market remains divided, the data-driven assessment of a high probability for a drop below $61,000 serves as a reminder of the asset’s inherent volatility. Traders and investors alike should stay informed and prepare for potential downside scenarios. FAQs Q1: Who is PlanB and why is his Bitcoin forecast significant? PlanB is a well-known Bitcoin analyst famous for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has historically predicted Bitcoin price cycles. His forecasts are closely watched by the crypto community due to the model’s past accuracy. Q2: What does a 50% probability of Bitcoin falling below $61,000 mean for the market? It indicates a high level of uncertainty. A drop below this level could signal further bearish momentum, potentially testing lower supports like $53,000. Traders should monitor key technical levels and market news closely. Q3: Should I sell my Bitcoin based on this forecast? No single forecast should dictate investment decisions. PlanB’s analysis is one perspective among many. It is advisable to conduct your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor before making any moves. This post PlanB Warns of Over 50% Probability Bitcoin Will Drop Below $61,000 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .