MSTR Stock Forecast: Strategy Faces $10.8B Bitcoin Loss Amid BTC Price Crash

Strategy shares (MSTR) were trading at $128.98 , rising by 1.92% on the day despite renewed pressure around its Bitcoin treasury position. The stock moved between an intraday low of $125.65 and a high of $131.47. The move came as Bitcoin’s sharp decline pushed Strategy’s unrealized Bitcoin loss to a record $10.8 billion. The company is now estimated to be down about 17% on its Bitcoin position after six years of accumulation. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has gained about 116%. Strategy’s stock remains far below its peak, down about 77% from its record high. Since the company disclosed the sale of 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135, its Bitcoin position has lost about $11.8 billion in value as BTC fell below $62,000. Bitcoin Decline Pushes MSTR Treasury Into Loss Bitcoin dropped more than 5% in early trading on Thursday and fell below $62,000 for the first time since February 6. The weekly decline reached nearly 16%, adding pressure to companies with large Bitcoin balance sheets. Strategy’s Bitcoin exposure has long been treated by investors as the main driver of MSTR stock performance. When BTC rises, the company often trades as a leveraged equity proxy for Bitcoin. When BTC falls, the same structure can deepen losses in the stock. The latest drop followed broader crypto weakness, spot ETF outflows and lower market liquidity. Michael Saylor said the weakness reflects capital rotation rather than a change in Bitcoin’s long-term case. He said capital markets have funded about $400 billion of AI buildout over six months, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $4 billion in outflows since May 14. Saylor said this shift has pressured BTC while investors direct capital toward artificial intelligence investments. His comments framed the selloff as a liquidity rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. STRC Yield and Cash Pressure Debate Return Strategy’s preferred equity products have also returned to focus. STRC traded at $94.85, placing its current yield near 12.12%, according to market commentary. Saylor has maintained STRC dividend rates at 11.5% for June. Peter Schiff argued that a lower STRC price could force Strategy to raise its dividend to bring the shares closer to $100. He said higher preferred yields could increase cash pressure and bring forward the need for Bitcoin sales to fund payments. Supporters of Strategy’s model rejected that view, arguing that the company can use equity issuance, preferred products, and balance sheet management to handle obligations. Critics counter that issuing shares at lower prices could increase dilution and weaken investor confidence. The debate has expanded to other digital asset treasury companies. Bitmine Immersion Technologies plans to issue $300 million in preferred shares with a 9.5% yield to raise capital for Ethereum purchases and staking infrastructure. Schiff compared that model with Strategy’s financing approach, warning that falling crypto prices could pressure similar structures. Historical Drawdowns Show MSTR Volatility Risk Strategy has historically traded with deeper drawdowns than the broader equity market during periods of stress. Across 15 major systemic shocks, MSTR posted an average decline of 28%, compared with an average 16% drop for the S&P 500 during the same periods. During the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis, MSTR fell 67%, while the S&P 500 declined 53%. During the 2020 COVID-19 crash, MSTR dropped 38%, compared with a 34% decline for the S&P 500 and a 0.7% decline for bonds. During the 2011 U.S. debt ceiling crisis and European contagion, MSTR declined 39%, while the S&P 500 fell 18% and bonds dropped 1.1%. These periods show that liquidity and credit stress have historically been difficult conditions for MSTR shareholders. The past month has shown similar sensitivity. MSTR fell about 31% while Bitcoin dropped about 22%, reflecting the stock’s higher volatility relative to the underlying asset. TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza maintained a Buy rating on MSTR and kept a $400 12-month price target, recently raised from $395. That target reflects continued confidence in Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy and capital structure, even as the stock has fallen more than 23% since mid-May.