S&P 500 & DJI Reverse Lower as Apple Plunges and Treasury Yields Hit Their Highest Since 2025

Wall Street’s early rally unraveled Friday as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average turned lower, with Apple’s near-10% plunge and a sharp rise in Treasury yields overpowering Amazon’s post-earnings surge. By late morning on July 31, the S&P 500 was down about 0.4%, while the Dow had lost roughly 151 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite also slipped about 0.3% after climbing more than 1% shortly after the opening bell. The reversal followed Thursday’s technology-led rebound, when the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Dow rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq jumped 2.8%. S&P 500 E-mini Futures. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X The S&P 500 E-mini futures chart captured the speed of Friday’s reversal. Futures retreated from above 7,510 to 7,438.50, down 0.43% in the supplied snapshot. The chart tracks futures rather than the cash S&P 500 index, but it clearly shows how quickly the market’s early optimism disappeared. Why Are the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Falling Today? Apple became the market’s biggest pressure point. Its shares fell about 9.3% after the company warned that supply constraints could limit growth and contribute to higher iPhone prices. Because the Dow is price-weighted, Apple’s decline had an outsized effect on the blue-chip index. Apple and Boeing together accounted for an estimated 221-point drag on the Dow during morning trading. Amazon moved sharply in the opposite direction, surging nearly 14% after strong cloud-computing and artificial-intelligence growth helped produce the company’s fastest revenue expansion in more than four years. That rally initially lifted the consumer-discretionary sector, but it was not enough to keep the broader indexes above water. U.S. Stock Market Heat Map. Source: X The market heat map showed how quickly the weakness spread beyond Apple. Technology, energy, industrial and consumer stocks were mostly red, with declines in Broadcom, Micron, Exxon Mobil, Eli Lilly, Tesla and other major companies. The broad selling suggested that investors were not simply reacting to one disappointing corporate update. Rising bond yields and renewed concern about stretched stock valuations were also pushing traders to reduce risk. Treasury-Yield Surge Raises the Pressure The bond market added another layer of stress. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as selling spread across Treasury maturities. Higher yields make borrowing more expensive for households and companies. They can also pressure highly valued technology and growth stocks by reducing the value investors place on future earnings. The move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Three policymakers dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase, highlighting concern that inflation could remain above the central bank’s target. Consumer data offered limited relief. The University of Michigan’s final July sentiment index improved to 55.2 from 49.5 in June. One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.2%, although longer-term expectations remained at 3.3%. Dow Transports Flash a Warning — Not a Crash Signal The supplied ElliottWaveSpot chart adds a bearish technical warning. It shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average retreating toward 21,089 after failing below the marked 22,856 resistance area. Dow Jones Transportation Average Elliott Waves. Source: ElliottWaveSpot on X The analyst’s Elliott Wave scenario projects a deeper decline toward roughly 16,500. However, that remains a speculative technical path rather than a confirmed price target. The weakness in transportation stocks also raises a broader Dow Theory concern. Under that framework, strength in the Dow Jones Industrial Average carries more weight when the transportation index confirms the move. When industrial stocks rise while transportation shares weaken, the divergence can suggest that the rally lacks broad economic support. Still, the signal does not guarantee a crash, and investors would need additional confirmation before treating it as the start of a major downturn. Friday’s reversal matters because it combines three risks: narrow market leadership, a collapse in a major Dow component and rising long-term borrowing costs. For the rebound to regain credibility, Treasury yields would likely need to stabilize while gains broaden beyond a small group of megacap stocks. Until then, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain vulnerable to further volatility.