CoinFund President Christopher Perkins is betting 2026 will be defined less by shiny new token narratives and more by balance sheets, regulation-enabled product launches, and the messy maturation of crypto into an industry that buys, sells, and consolidates itself. In a Dec. 31 thread on X, Perkins laid out seven predictions: #1 Crypto ‘M&A Summer’ And A $25 Billion Deal Year Perkins’ first and loudest call: 2026 will be “the year of crypto M&A.” He pegged 2025 M&A activity at roughly $8.6 billion in total deal value, then projected 2026 will “reach $25bn,” framing it as a step-change rather than a modest grind higher. He sketched consolidation pressure across multiple fronts, from “DAT/Labs/Foundation consolidation” to “DAT vs DAT (mNAV reckoning),” plus a two-way bridge between traditional finance and crypto. The direction of travel, in his telling, is straightforward: TradFi firms trying to catch up and crypto firms buying their way into regulated capabilities. “TradFi → Crypto (ugh, I’m behind and need to catch up),” he wrote. “Crypto (DATs, Exchanges) → TradFi (we need operating companies, securities capabilities and licenses, too!).” He also flagged “Asia→US” as a theme, arguing that a clearer regulatory environment will pull international players toward the US market. “2021 was stablecoin summer; 2026 is going to be M&A summer,” Perkins concluded. #2 Stablecoins To $600 Billion Perkins’ second prediction is a market-cap doubling in stablecoins, “surpassing $600bn (2x).” His reasoning hinges less on retail use and more on issuer economics and market plumbing. “For every stablecoin, someone is making net interest income. Who wouldn’t want one?” he wrote. “As markets tokenize, you’ll need stablecoins to buy and sell them. Watch the growth accelerate in 2026.” The subtext is that stablecoins become the default settlement asset for on-chain financial activity—especially if more real-world assets and market structures migrate on-chain—while issuer incentives remain strong. #3 A $2 Billion-Plus Crypto Hack As A Policy Catalyst Perkins also forecast a major security event: “A major hack >$2bn will shake confidence, lead to a drawdown and catalyze to policy changes.” He pointed to what he described as worsening trends, citing $3.4 billion in hacking during 2025, “a 51% increase,” then argued the attack surface grows as tokenization and stablecoins bring “hundreds of billions more” on-chain. He went further than the usual call for better security practices, floating a provocative historical reference as a possible policy direction. “Maybe it’s time for a new change to policy, like Letters of Marque and Reprisal,” he wrote. “Just sayin’….” The implication: if losses scale up, the policy response could become more aggressive—and less abstract. #4 Regulated Derivatives Return On market structure, Perkins predicted US crypto derivatives will come “back to the US in a major way,” with a “big battle for marketshare” as “new players enter the space.” Even as he expects the US share of global derivatives volume to triple, he argued CME’s slice of US crypto futures could fall amid broader competition. His thesis is rooted in regulatory momentum and institutional trading behavior. “Now that the regulatory path is clear, there will be a proliferation of new regulated futures products launched in the US,” Perkins wrote. “As crypto enters its institutional era, demand will be off the charts because basis trading will be their first step. This will breathe life back into alts.” #5 No Market-Structure Bill Not everything is acceleration. Perkins’ fifth prediction: a comprehensive market structure bill “will not be passed,” blaming political calendar gravity. “Sorry guys, this one is going to be too difficult. Midterms will take the oxygen out of the room,” he wrote. #6 New ATHs For Bitcoin And ETH Despite that, he still expects new highs in the majors, calling for bitcoin at $150,000 and ether above $5,000. “BTC and $ETH will hit ATHs,” Perkins wrote. “BTC hits $150,000; ETH makes passes $5,000. Institutional adoption makes this possible.” #7 NFTs Return, But Not As Jpegs Finally, Perkins forecast an NFT revival with a format change. “NFTs will make a comeback, but version 2.0 will not be jpegs,” he wrote, carving out an exception for CryptoPunks while dismissing a broader JPEG-led resurgence. Instead, he expects “financial, non-fungible tokens,” potentially tied to “individualized, tokenized security/yield vaults.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.94 trillion.
