Coinpaper
February 6, 2026 7:36 PM UTC

Only 4 Times in 13 Years: What Comes Next with XRP Back at a Critical Zone?

XRP Enters a Rare Historical RSI Zone as Bulls and Bears Battle for Control According to on-chain analytics platform Cryptollica, XRP has slipped into one of its rarest technical zones in over a decade. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 43, a level only seen three times in the past 13 years, specifically February 2017, March 2020, and June 2022. Each of those prior readings didn’t just mark oversold conditions; they aligned with major cycle reset phases that preceded sharp structural shifts in XRP’s trajectory. Therefore, the scarcity of this signal is what makes it stand out. The latest downturn has been fueled by a broader crypto market correction. Data from CoinCodex shows XRP is down roughly 43.9% year-to-date, currently trading at $1.22. Well, this pullback has erased much of its earlier rally momentum and left sentiment noticeably more defensive. Cryptollica notes that this deep reset on the monthly RSI has now occurred only four times since XRP’s launch, with each previous instance arriving during periods of heavy repricing before a new trend eventually emerged. This historical context is now drawing attention as traders assess whether the fourth signal carries similar weight. Rare XRP RSI Reset Sparks Hope, But Chart Structure Still Warns of Trouble Market analyst ChartNerd points to a broader structure that continues to lean bearish. Since the five-day 20/50 EMA death cross formed in November 2025, XRP has managed two recovery attempts, both of which were rejected. The first rally failed at the 50-day EMA around $2.40 in January, forming a lower high before price rolled over toward $1.11. The second stalled at the 20-day EMA near $1.54 in May, reinforcing another lower high and confirming the ongoing downtrend structure. What do these repeated rejections suggest? Well, they show sellers remain in control of the larger trend, with momentum rallies consistently fading at key moving averages. Until XRP can reclaim these levels and break the sequence of lower highs, caution is likely to dominate sentiment. The takeaway is that XRP sits at a critical inflection point pertaining to a historically rare RSI reset on one side, and a still-intact bearish market structure on the other. Whether this becomes a long-term turning point or just another pause in a deeper correction is the question shaping the next move.